This will be an introduction to the theme for this year's seminar. We will explore the question of whether or not it is possible for an investor to outperform the market, and if so, how this might be done. There are strong opinions on both sides of this question. This short presentation will include an outline of the main arguments being advanced today, as well as some definitions of terminology used, and some intriguing data based on actual performance of various active management methods.
Don Stewart - "The Efficient Market Hypothesis"
Investors’ evaluation of the Efficient Market and the related Random Walk hypotheses should be a major factor in implementing their investing strategy. Don will outline these hypotheses, and how their acceptance, or rejection, impacts investor behavior. He will also comment on the role of other important factors, including: diversifi cation, asset allocation, index funds, taxes, and expenses.
Hank will present an overview of his new book by Wiley Press, “The Three Skills Of Top Trading.” Each of the three key models found in Hank’s book shall be illustrated with data from recent market behavior: (1) the Life Cycle Model of Crowd Behavior; (2) the Wyckoff Method of pattern recognition; and (3) The Ten Tasks of Top Trading for mental state control. He will discuss the use of these models for the prediction of price changes based on changes in investor psychology.
Knowing the fair value of equity tells an investor a great deal about whether they should buy or sell an investment. Value in this case is related to the growth, dividends, interest rates, and risk, according to the rules of fundamental analysis. If the price of a stock is significantly below the fair value, then an investor is advised to buy. The investor trusts that eventually the market will reflect accurately the security’s real worth. In the long run, it is the fundamentals that are the major driving force in the price of investments and an investor’s profit.
Al’s session will provide an overview of a quantitative approach to investing, including: (1) A practical definition of quantitative investing for the individual investor; (2) The advantages of taking a quantitative approach to investment decisions; and (3) Examples of applications of quant investing for the individual investor (screening and back testing, setting stops and position sizing, and minimizing portfolio volatility). Examples will include using stocks, ETFs and mutual funds with both value and momentum approaches.
Dr. Bob Smithson, Registered Investment Advisor, President, Anava Corp. and Manager, Anava Capital Management LLC
October 20, 2007: An Assessment of Economic Trends and the Implications for 2008
This presentation will discuss the much mentioned “repricing of risk,” the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of various sectors of the U.S. and global economies, and the potential pitfalls for both policy makers and individual investors. Jeanette will provide a forecast for interest rates, earnings, consumer spending, capital spending, the trade deficit and the dollar. She will also discuss the challenges facing monetary and fiscal policy makers.
Speaker: Jeanette Garretty, Senior Advisor, Wells Fargo Private Bank
Michael Begley, CFA, will give an introduction to using the XLQ software application. This software facilitates accessing SI-Pro data from an Excel worksheet. Examples will illustrate how this software can help you make better user of your AAII Stock Investor Pro data to refine your stock analysis.
Michael is a long-time active member of AAII and has made presentations to the Silicon Valley AAII Computerized Investing Subgroup. Michael is the local user group leader for a popular investment software package. For the past 8 years, Michael has traded and invested full time. Speaker
September 20, 2007 Finding Green in the Green
Firsthand invests in and thrives on keeping up with the latest innovations and breakthroughs. The firm concentrates on the long term using experts who understand an industry best and who have actually earned a living in industry. Mr. Landis’ investment team has extensive technology backgrounds, including degrees in the sciences and solid work experience in technology industries. Their analysts subscribe to the premise that “Success often follows passion” by keeping up with the latest innovations and breakthroughs. They look for companies that will deliver steady growth over time—companies with insight, solid technology and management experience, and a sound business plan to turn their vision into reality.
Speaker Kevin Landis, Chief Investment Officer, Firsthand Capital Management
This AAII Silicon Valley Chapter special interest group will exchange knowledge and educate members on how to use SI Pro. Join us and refine your stock screening skills, share your knowledge, and learn how to make better choices.
“Backtesting & SI Pro: Everything You Ever Wanted to Know,” by Al Zmyslowski
As we all know, SI Pro is great screening tool, but what happens when further criteria are added? Can an investor determine what is really effective? Turning to risk, what’s the best way to use RiskGrades? What do they really tell us and what will they not tell us?.
April 26, 2007 High Yields Without High Risks: The Best Buys Now in Utilities, Canadian Trusts and Other Surprising Superstars
Income investing pro Roger S. Conrad shows how to build a successful income portfolio that will dish out high yields and out-grow inflation, while keeping volatility and trading to a minimum.
Learn how to pick first-rate income investments your broker won’t tell you about, how to build a portfolio that will stand the test of time and when it makes sense to sell an income investment, and when it doesn’t.
Speaker Roger S. Conrad - Editor, Utility Forecaster, Canadian Edge; and Associate Editor, Personal Finance
March 10, 2007 Everything You Wanted to Know about Stocks and Bonds But Were Afraid to Ask
Harvey Baraban is a speaker you truly won’t want to miss. His presentations to our chapter and many other AAII chapters have been among the best-regarded events ever. Mr. Baraban sold his interest in Baraban Securities in 1989 and is no longer affiliated with any brokerage firm or investment product–he is free to tell his secrets of investing, having nothing to promote or sell. He’s a true expert and knows how to teach what he knows. We are proud to welcome Harvey back to our chapter.
Sector-based investing and trading can be very profitable. This is an educational talk on what kind of results you could potentially achieve with sector investing models and how you can build them yourself. We will explore different approaches to sector investing and highlight what has worked and what has not. Modeling issues, problems and solutions will be highlighted. A number of sector rotation models will be explored with and without market timing. Models for industry sector funds and country funds will be presented.Sector-based investing and trading can be very profitable. This is an educational talk on what kind of results you could potentially achieve with sector investing models and how you can build them yourself. We will explore different approaches to sector investing and highlight what has worked and what has not. Modeling issues, problems and solutions will be highlighted. A number of sector rotation models will be explored with and without market timing. Models for industry sector funds and country funds will be presented.
Speaker Michael J. Begley, CFA
March 5, 12, 19 & 26, 2007 Fundamentals of Investing Taught in Four Weekly Classes
The classes will cover the following major topics:
• Investment Goals and Your Personal Profile
• The Risk/Return Tradeoff
• Assets Classes and Asset Allocation
• Building a Portfolio: Monitoring and Rebalancing
• Investment Vehicles: Stocks, Bonds, Mutual Funds, ETFs, REITs, etc.
• The Annual Report: Understanding Financial Statements
Additional subjects such as Modern Portfolio Theory, Market Timing, and Stock Screening will be discussed. The 66-page AAII Investment book, "Investing Basics and Beyond," is included.
Speakers: Lynn Gillette, President Silicon Valley Chapter AAII, Engineer, Fred Smith, Board Member Silicon Valley Chapter AAII, Engineer, Don Stewart, Registered Investment Advisor
February 20, 2007 General Discussion on Computerized Investing
The idea is simply for computer users to discuss what works, what doesn’t, and what else is needed to actually achieve the time savings and improved performance that our computers should produce. We can share Web sites, ideas, results and problems with each other. There’s no agenda, just an opportunity to talk things over. Bob Smithson, the board member for Computerized Investing, will moderate the discussion.
Don uses an investment strategy of buy and hold winners, but share losses with the IRS and CA. This strategy has earned millions of dollars in total return gains for client and family accounts over the last 15 years. Don will outline the advantages of this strategy, and suggest both simple and complex methods to capture them in your investment portfolio.
Speaker Don Stewart, MBA, CPA, Registered Investment Advisor
The first meeting of the Silicon Valley Chapter Stock Investor Pro Users Group, a "get acquainted session" where we can exchange ideas on how our group will operate. Please come prepared to offer your ideas and topics. A few questions to stimulate your thinking:
How often should we meet?
What types of information should be exchanged?
What topics would you like to see discussed?
What should be the goals/mission of the SI-Pro Group?
Come prepared to share your views. Let's make this active productive and educational group.
Chairman Andy Prophet